NATO counts on Tripoli uprising to break deadlock

Reuters ALGIERS, June 21 (Reuters) – NATO is trying to lay the groundwork for an armed uprising inside the Libyan capital to oust Muammar Gaddafi because it has lost hope that rebels elsewhere in the country can advance on Tripoli any time soon.

The pattern of NATO air strikes on Tripoli indicates that the alliance is trying to reduce Gaddafi’s ability to defend himself at the moment when his opponents in the city, who for the time being are underground, decide to rise up.

Geoff Porter, of North Africa Risk Consulting, said NATO’s true objective was now becoming clear.

“The official NATO policy is to protect civilians from Gaddafi’s troops. The unstated goal is to create conditions in Tripoli whereby the local population can achieve ‘military breakout’ and topple Gaddafi,” he said.

It is a high-risk strategy, but one the alliance has been forced into because, three months into a military campaign that most of its supporters thought would take only a few weeks, it has no other real options.

Rebels on three fronts outside the capital have been unable to make significant advances, NATO bombing and defections have not caused Gaddafi’s rule to implode and Western powers will not do the one thing that would end the conflict: send in troops.

“I think there is … a realisation that the rebels don’t really have a chance of breaking out from the east, making their way to Tripoli,” said Shashank Joshi of the Royal United Services Institute, a London think-tank.

“It will rely on some sort of urban uprising within the city itself.”

“At some point he (Gaddafi) will run out of the resources necessary to provide internal security in Tripoli itself, and he will be over-stretched, and when that occurs … I think you will see many armed groups rise up in Tripoli,” said Joshi.

STRIKE TARGETS

Creating the conditions for this uprising appears to be the logic behind some of the targets in Tripoli that NATO planners have been selecting.

Typhoon jets flown by Britain’s air force at the end of May fired weapons to destroy the guard towers along the walls of Gaddafi’s Bab al-Aziziyah compound in Tripoli, the British military said.

Those guard towers would be used to defend the compound from any attack by resistance fighters.

Other attacks fit the same pattern: targeting facilities and institutions Gaddafi is likely to rely on to put down a rebellion in Tripoli.

Earlier this month, NATO forces said they attacked Gaddafi’s secret police headquarters in Tripoli, and the headquarters of the domestic intelligence service.

In May, an air strike hit what the British military called a base for the Executive Protection Forces, which it said provided the bodyguard for Gaddafi’s inner circle.

An air strike this week on the town of Surman, 70 km (45 miles) west of Tripoli, may have been planned in the same context. Libyan officials said the attack killed 19 people, including relatives of Khouildi Hamidi, whose daughter is married to one of Gaddafi’s sons.

Hamidi himself survived, but was the likely target. He has been closely involved in efforts to stamp out the revolt against Gaddafi’s rule. “He was very much there” during the crackdown, said Ashour Shamis, a British-based Libyan opposition activist.

NO OTHER OPTION

For Western governments, it is a gamble to count on an underground opposition movement they do not know and cannot see to unseat Gaddafi.

The problem is that the weakness of the insurgents outside Tripoli leaves NATO powers with no viable alternative.

The rebel National Transitional Council added to its growing list of diplomatic allies on Wednesday when resource-hungry China, possibly eyeing oil deals once the conflict is over, said it saw the council as an “important dialogue partner.”

In military terms, the insurgents’ outlook is less rosy.

In the eastern third of Libya, where the rebels have their main stronghold, they have been trying for weeks to break through pro-Gaddafi defences and reach the oil town of Brega.

Fighters in Misrata, 200 km (125 miles) east of Tripoli, have pushed Gaddafi’s forces out of the city but are bogged down in farmland to the west. They take heavy losses every time they push a few hundred metres (yards) towards Tripoli.

Insurgents in the Western Mountains region, southwest of Tripoli, have made the biggest advances. They have thrust pro-Gaddafi forces out of a series of towns and are now within 100 km (65 miles) of the capital.

To get to Tripoli, though, they would have to come down from their mountain plateaux and fight Gaddafi’s forces in the desert plains. There, his heavy weapons will give him an advantage.

Given time, the insurgents would probably break through. But time is a commodity NATO does not have.

With each day the conflict drags on, strains within the alliance over the cost, the civilian casualties and the legality of the operation are increasing.

“We are probably getting there (on the military front) but very, very slowly, and probably too slowly for those in NATO who are getting reasonably jittery,” said David Hartwell, Middle East and North Africa analyst with IHS Jane’s, a defence and security consultancy.

“NATO appears, or part of it appears, to be getting cold feet, or questioning the commitment, and that gives him (Gaddafi) an incentive to stick around and say to himself: ‘I can wait this out’,” he said.

WILL IT WORK?

So far, many of NATO’s calculations about what it will take to oust Gaddafi have proved over-optimistic. Will its new strategy of backing a Tripoli uprising prove any different?

It is clear that there is an underground opposition movement inside the Libyan capital.

Activists have held “flash” protests, chanting anti-Gaddafi slogans for a few minutes, then melting away. They have hung the rebel green, black and red flag from bridges, and at night write anti-Gaddafi graffiti on walls.

Their activities go beyond non-violent protest. At night, exchanges of gunfire can be heard in parts of the city. Libyan officials say it is celebratory gunfire. Some residents say it is the security forces clashing with insurgents.

The authorities are sufficiently worried about rebels smuggling weapons into Tripoli that they search vehicles at roadblocks at the entrances to the city.

At the same time, there are signs that the security forces on which Gaddafi relies to control internal dissent — known to Libyans as the “Katiba” — are being stretched.

Some media reports say that barely-trained students have been given guns and told to man checkpoints in Tripoli because the regular forces have been sent away to the front lines.

However, the balance of forces in Tripoli remains on Gaddafi’s side. He still has forces with sufficient numbers, weapons and loyalty to shoot at anyone trying to revolt.

To change that, analysts say, will take a big rebel victory in the east, the defection of an important security unit in Tripoli, or something else which loosens Gaddafi’s grip on power in the city.

As with the other approaches NATO has tried to topple Gaddafi, encouraging an uprising in Tripoli will take what the alliance can least afford: time.

“I think there is dissent in Tripoli, bubbling, really percolating grievances,” said Joshi at the Royal United Services Institute. “As for whether it (a revolt) is likely I think yes, but not any time soon.”

Source: Reuters

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30 Responses to NATO counts on Tripoli uprising to break deadlock

  1. charlie says:

    This analysis doesn’t go together with reports of frustration of FF-commanders that they are being ordered by NATO not to advance on Sliten. Some one is wrong here, whom?

    • Norwegian says:

      Sadly enough, the analysis does support that Nato have told the FF to hold back both in Zliten and Brega. As it says the FF doesn’t have the hardware to fight G forces in open desert landscape. FF needs to take advantage that Nato can provide Intel, hold Brega with a minimum of FF, move FF from East by sea or desert to open up new fronts in the West. Large FF army cannot at present defeat G forces, smaller FF groups that work together and make G spread hus forces have a better chance.

  2. Libya says:

    The best way to arm the people of Tripoli in order to protect themselves, their properties and their land is to throw a million rifles from an airplane from above Tripoli and attach to each rifle a small parachute. That will solve the problem straight away and for the people of Tripoli to be liberated from this poisonous devil.

  3. Pingback: NATO counts on Tripoli uprising to break deadlock | Libya February 17th « Yahyasheikho786's Blog

  4. rohama says:

    @patriot
    you should be kicked out from this blog. you r a stupid, liar & bustard. you always change your statement like wind & show illogical logic to prove your comments.
    In your one post, on 18th of June at 3.42pm you wrote: “Stop lies, there was NEVER any peaceful demonstration in Libya. Do you know the meaning of “peaceful demonstration”? “. source:http://www.libyafeb17.com/2011/06/tripoli-mortuary-eyewitness-haunted-by-libya-deaths/

    And now today in another page of this blog at 6.25pm you wrote in your post: “Its not the first time there has been demonstrations in Libya but there has never been violent demonstrations. These demos were instigated by the agents in order to destroy the country.”
    read your those comments with simple care, your two statements above totally collisional each one with another. where once you say there was never any peaceful demonstration in Libya, and then again you say there has never been violent(antonym of peaceful) demonstration.
    I’m asking your which comment is correct, Mr. liar ‘patriot’?
    only for 500LYD you sold your consideration power to Gaddafi regime!?
    I’ve caught many false statements from your few post to me before in this blog, and I proved you as a great liar like today.
    Go to the hell bustard! And I’m urging to everybody here to call you continuously ‘bustard liar’.

    • patriot says:

      I corrected my statement after I got more information. I am not scared to correct myself when I am wrong, unlike you who will stick to your lies to the end.

      This is the post which I give credit and write more on it:

      patriot says:

      June 22, 2011 at 11:35 am

      Thank you for proving there was no shootings in the few peaceful demonstrations. . Mostly had few people though.
      There was NEVER any peaceful demonstrations that was shot at by Libyan government forces

      Seeing the way violence was instigated in Syria by shooters on the side…anything is possible.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJYKLb72Y1k&feature=related

      Now post those violent demonstrations…

      Also post the pro government demonstrations like the ones below:-

      Benghazi
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGplXgUODZM

      Tripoli
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM7RD4NCpaQ

      Also

      Watch and make up your OWN mind.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7815fwqyDGE#at=24

      Libya will win against NATO and their mercenaries. Remember this.

      PS: This is a discussion on which new info surfaces everyday and the more it unfolds the more we see the injustice of NATO.

      • rohama says:

        actually you did always wrong & lie. it is not a mathmatics, where man can do error in using minus or plus symbles, then you can say oh god I did a wrong. it is a subject of situation’s description and what you did it was not the result of absence mind. you were completely in sense. because two times you did it on the same issue. so it’s true that it was the exact description of your views regarding Libyans demonstrations, which was full of lies. you actually been caught by your own trap. so don’t make false try to prove yourself as a truthful, you infact are a great liar. so it is better for save your dignity to stop lying ere long.

        • patriot says:

          I am not you WEB hiding in numerous names. I have already explained above. You take it or leave it. This is not mathematics of bush “you are either with us or against us”.

          Information flows and actions are dynamic. Have you seen the new map? Check the shrinking of the area occupied by your mercenaries.

          You are a big liar posting using numerous names. Why change the name all the time?

          • rohama says:

            you the dog’s son! could you prove it I always change my name?
            stop your lying or make full your mouth by filth of animal.

  5. Fredy says:

    Nato has been trying to prepare Libya and the world for a ground invasion.
    Nato can say anything they want. The NTC is quiet and the rebels are moving steady despite of Nato’s orders to stay behind the red lines.

    The NTC has not asked Nato for ground intervention. Nato is anxious , not the rebels. The rebels were desperate during the siege in Misrata and they never asked Nato for ground intervention. Why would the rebels want Nato on the ground now ?

    For the Libyan people is clear that the presence of foreign boots means long term trouble.

    Some rebels have said , if ground troops enter Libya they would be attacked.

  6. James Miller says:

    ” NATO is trying to lay the groundwork for an armed uprising inside the Libyan capital to oust Muammar Gaddafi because it has lost hope that rebels elsewhere in the country can advance on Tripoli any time soon .”

    Hi Charlie,
    Yeah, you are absolutely right.This report and the above statement is absolute garbage and an utter lie..

    Nato is doing two things to stop the Freedom Fighters:

    The first is they are ordering/requesting/asking/advising/manipulating the FF not to advance, to not take ground and to not advance.

    The second is they are refusing to bomb any of Gaddafi;s forces in any significant way at the front lines to keep Gaddafi’s forces strong enough to prevent the FF from advancing.. They wait for days and days even after civilians and FF have been bombed and shelled over and over again and then NATO makes some lame 50 percent response to pretend they are doing something.
    ..
    Now they are outright lying about what they are doing.

    Did anyone read the “Key Hits” NATO made on Misrata last night? Absolutely and utterly pathetic considering Gaddafi forces are shelling Misrata every day and causing many many deaths both for civilians and FF. They might as well have bombed a couple of garbage cans.
    Notice on the NATO reports they never tell how many (and they know) pieces of artillery etc Gaddafi has in a particular area. That would give away the game plan.. And there is no point in attriting the front lines if the NLA is forbidden to attack and take the ground and Gaddafi is allowed to endlessly supply,
    NATO is deliberately or inadvertently engineering a “Forever War”

    There are no civilians there on the G-forces front lines. If NATO even took out 10 rocket launchers or armour in one night it would be significant, In fact they could probably take out 50 or 100 or 500 or any number they wanted in one night. Apaches helicopter have 16 Hellfire missiles each, in a thirty minutes night time pre-dawn attack they could reduce a major section of the front line to absolute destruction and chaos. Of course that would mean the FF would roll over the lines immediately, and of course NATO has been told never to let that happen.

    They did the same thing in Nalut and Nafusa day after day, week after week , They refused to bomb the Gaddafi forces that were shelling civilians because they did not wish to significantly weaken Gadaffi and have the FF advance.

    NATO had caused the people of Tripoli to be massacred, TWENTY THOUSAND, ENTIRE FAMILIES, FROM TRIPOLI have been arrested are missing and are presumed dead,
    Does anybody think Gaddafi the “humanitarian” is feeding twenty thousand prisoners, when it is just so easy to dump them in the sea with all the other Murdered people dead Tripoli that were shot dead for being on the streets at the wrong time?
    Since when wouldn’t Gaddafi kill them? His troops kill people on the streets if they blink the wrong way.
    There is no one left in Tripoli to rise up . NATO got them cream of them all, the leadership, the best and the bravest got killed by not letting them get rescued.

    “.they have been trying for weeks to break through pro-Gaddafi defences and reach the oil town of Brega”

    Again , an utter lie! General Younis stated over and over again that NATO “advised” them and asked them not to attack Brega. There has been NO “TRYING”.

    An uprising in Tripoli? The same as in Zliten? The Zliten rebellion has crushed flat as a pancake by the overwhelming force of Gaddafi’ murderous mercenaries. it’s the usually extermination. , This is absolute nonsense Even when 90 percent of the people hate Gaddafi (as they do in Tripoli) , they have no arms , no organization , and they are repressed by a small ruthless powerful military machine the core of which is foreign mercenaries who will only have loyalty to Gaddafi.

    So NATO deliberately stalls the FF and they don’t have a chance in Hades of helping a revolution in Tripoli without the FF getting there and helping so the question is what ti is NATO really up to?
    ..
    The answer then becomes the obvious – they have no plan, They are like some person who has had a lobotomy. They are forced somehow to go along a relentless insane path that can eve accomplish anything. Except that this path accomplishes getting ten so thousands and hundreds of thousands of Libyan killed,
    What are they trying to do ? are they trying to get Gaddafi to apologize to the Foreign politicians?
    I declare they have no Plan
    They are following POLITICAL INSTRUCTION..

    The goal of the NATO commander is not to win any military situation, he has been ordered not to win, his goal and all their goals are to keep their careers by following the Political Instruction which is confused, contradictory, non-military and basically irrational.
    But yet the NATO commanders must follow the Political Instruction.

    Some Political Executive, perhaps Obama himself or a group of Politicians have said to the NATO commander(s) something like:

    “We don’t want those guys , the( NLA ) going to Tripoli under any circumstances, we are afraid of “turmoil. Chaos, and our own shadows”, we don’t trust them we don’t want to see the military action that will result, we don’t don’t want to feel guilty about anything, we’ll just close our eyes to all the killing going on, and pretend we are not responsible for that.

    “So now our Instruction to you,NATO is to get rid of Gaddafi, but don’t let the FF into Tripoli”.

    So, that is the political instruction that NATO has been given, It’s obvious. So they are trying to engineer a solutions given this enormous restriction to have both arms and legs tied behind their backs.
    Guess what,, it probably impossible, there months from now it might not be much different, If Gaddafi, survives another three months , it will be the FF who will be exhausted in resources, not Gaddafi.
    So unless NATO changes it’s policy, unless they replace their lobotomized game plan and stop interfering and allow the NLA to fight and win ,then Gaddafi HAS already won,
    And he knows it.
    That political Instruction cannot achieve anything, but it doesn’t matter, they are forced to follow the political instruction of whatever executive or group of political executives is whomever is telling them what to do.

    This what politicians achieve – “Organized Insanity”. Politicians cannot win wars, and there is no mandate to win a war here.
    Because there is no mandate to win a war, the war which is actually occurring will go on and on and on and hundreds of thousands will die, because that is the consequence of refusing to win a war, and refusing to acknowledge that there is one.

    What is going on now is not the result of military strategy because there is none.
    All the analysts think – “There must be a plan” but the truth is there isn’t one.

    People are scratching their heads and saying “So what is the strategy”?
    Follow the bouncing ball of absolute logic – There is no “Plan”.
    ====.

    There is one piece of good news. NATO even refuses to bomb as much as five tanks or five artillery pieces in one night at Misrata or any specific front. The action at Nalut yesterday was the first time they went beyond four pieces in on front at one day — and they were three days too late – three are dozens of dead because they simply refused to help give timely help.

    I’ve seen the NATO briefings, they can spot a lizard hiding under a tree, with all their equipment , satellites, infrared etc etc, they can can probably map every last garage can around Zliten.

    But they refuse to take out more than one or two pieces of equipment a night or every few days , if even that and usually a lesser value like a truck mounted artillery or maybe a discarded bicycle, who knows?

    The good news, now here it comes! – is that if they refuse to even take out as much as five pieces in one night at one location when they could probably take out anywhere from 50 to 500, they must think that even five would upset the balance of power.

    So that means the FF must be as close as five pieces of artillery towards tipping the balance!

    I’m sure glad these incompetent politicians and NATO never fought WW2. Actually if they did it would have better better if they fought for the losing side.

    ” said Joshi at the Royal United Services Institute. “As for whether it (a revolt) is likely I think yes, but not any time soon.”

    Get it folks? It’s not there. It’s not happening,it’s not going to happen, yet it is what NATO has to try because of their Political Instruction.
    There will be months and months more of this – mass murder engineered by an institution, NATO, which has become technically insane as the extreme ineffectiveness of one of the world’s greatest coalition of Air Power can only be the definition of insanity.

    There is no Plan. It is the Plan of No Plan
    But everything that is happening is being deliberately engineered by NATO,
    .

    • Hadock says:

      Whoaaaahhh

      Your last two sentence, its like a logic killer

      Then is no plan but everything that is happening is being deliberately engineered by NATO, you say ?

      Arent you finding a logic error in this ?

    • Charlie says:

      Nice post! For everyones sake lets hope they have a hidden plan. But I’m beginning to doubt it…

    • Free Azzawia says:

      I believe you are making it sound too simple, with regards to taking down G’s rocket launchers around Misrata – do you realize these are all MOBILE, and as soon as they here incoming aircraft, are on-the-go heading for cover behind trees/hospitals/schools, etc.

      Also NATO cannot be as trigger happy as you wish given they are going out of their way to avoid/minimize collateral damage..

      give it some time… Rome wasn’t built in a day/week/month… G had his 40+ years of control, it will take a while to shake him down to his eventual downfall.

      Patience.

  7. James Miller says:

    On last thing, I ‘d like to point out, there were two friendly fire incidents on the FF outside Brega.

    Particularly, NATO regularly patrols outside Brega but never bothers much hitting targets inside Brega (I mean that would be doing something useful) or the coastal supply road, which is why Gaddafi is so well fortified at Brega.

    The point is the friendly fire incidents were spontaneous they got authorization to fire very quickly.
    So the idea that NATO has to wait 72 hours or some BS like that to get authorization is so much misinformation.
    When they want to , they will can get authorization to fire before a vehicle can escape, as is what happened in these incidents.
    .And it means there is no excuse for NATO allowing the shelling and deaths of thousands and now perhaps tens of thousands in their policy of refusing to attack Gaddafi forces at the front lines, and keeping the NLA suppressed and being murdered daily by Gaddafi forces.

  8. James Miller says:

    “Then is no plan but everything that is happening is being deliberately engineered by NATO, you say ?
    Aren’t you finding a logic error in this ?”

    I know you are doing the typical trolling fragmentation for contentiousness idea, but I will answer because it allows me to further explain for others:

    Not at all, people are responsible for their abrogation of responsibility. In the case of the mentally ill, one could argue they don’t have the capability for responsibility, but in this case the abrogation of responsibility of success is their political instruction.
    This is thus the description of how an organization becomes dysfunctional.

    NATO has been given a restriction by which they cannot have any viable military plan while following that restriction.

    They are responsible for the results of the strategy of their air campaign, even if that campaign is dysfunctional and has been so limited as to be plan-less.
    So NATO is simply floundering or flailing about, and that is a Plan-less situation.
    But in floundering about they are responsible for what actions they are doing and the result of those actions,. Specifically the stalling of the NLA has resulted in many many deaths , all of which NATO is responsible for by refusing to take responsibility and have a viable plan for success,

  9. Zarquax says:

    Nato is still hoping for Ghadaffi to give in and step down, which would indeed be to be preferred over a battle for Tripoli. The fewer lives lost in the liberation, the better, right?

    However, I think they might misjudge the likelihood of that scenario. I especially disagree with the restraint on the eastern front. A concentrated push capturing the highly important towns of Brega and Ras Lanuf would tip the balance considerably and turn the waiting game clearly in the rebels’ favor.

    • Midnight Rambler says:

      The problem with that logic is, what happens next? Brega and Ras Lanuf are small towns that are mostly good for exporting oil, and that capability is destroyed now. There is no way the rebels will be able to push beyond them to Sirte, being much further beyond and much better fortified.

      You, and the people who want an all-out assault on Brega, are thinking tactically instead of strategically. It is much better to have a minimal amount of fighting that ties down a large number of Gaddafi forces – especially when the FF supply lines from Ajdibayah are short and the G lines from Sirte are long – than to lose a lot of rebel soldiers fighting over a place that no longer has much strategic importance. NATO and the rebel ground forces can keep the G army from making any serious advance toward Ajdibayah, so it’s better to have them tied down there and unable to move west, where the rebels are moving toward Tripoli on two fronts.

      • emca says:

        I’ve seen no reports that oil terminals in Brega and Ras Lanuf have been destroyed. If there is, please post the links.

    • Free Azzawia says:

      I believe cities closer to Tripoli, such as Gheryan and Zliten and particularly Azzawia would be more important in tipping the balance then far away eastern enclaves.

      just an observation/opinion.

  10. patriot says:

    NATO protecting civilians? Give me a break.
    Where were they when Mother Russia was taking care of the rebels is Chechnya?
    Too much hypocrisy….too much.
    All of you are pure bullshitters. No wonder some ask me what I am doing here…

    • Corrector says:

      Yeah so then Russia would launch a bunch of Nukes at the west… someone ban your IP from posting here.

    • Free Azzawia says:

      apples and oranges patriot, apples and oranges cannot be compared.

      Moscow’s government is democratically elected and Chechnya belongs to Russia.

      Kadafi has LOST all legitimacy with regards to ruling in Libya.

  11. Fredy says:

    Libya says:
    June 22, 2011 at 7:56 pm
    The best way to arm the people of Tripoli in order to protect themselves, their properties and their land is to throw a million rifles from an airplane from above Tripoli and attach to each rifle a small parachute. That will solve the problem straight away and for the people of Tripoli to be liberated from this poisonous devil.

    This is Libyan common sense. Funny and brilliant.
    It’s a great idea. Levee.
    ——————————————————————-Phony patriot says

    All of you are pure bullshitters. No wonder some ask me what I am doing here…

    Bullshitter.

  12. Milen says:

    Mr. Miller, Its really a hard time for you, right? In previous cases you and the other haters/populists had a convinient and obvious scenarios, so you could more easily blame NATO/USA/EU (which is the only purpose of your ‘analysis’, of course). But now what??? The situation in Libya is so obviously ‘black and white’ that you are having a hard time to produce some conspiracy theory. So you decide to blame NATO in ‘lobotomy descision making’???.
    Ahhh, sir, seems like you’re getting desperete :))))

  13. James Miller says:

    “The fewer lives lost in the liberation, the better, right?”

    You must be kidding. Waiting has killed many people 10 to 20 thousand in Misrata, 20 thousand in Tripoli at least, all the uprisings in every city have been quashed and thousands murdered because no one came to help them.

    You can’t liberate the dead. It is already too late for tens of thousands and will be too late for tens of thousands more.
    ..
    If You wait long enough there will be no point to go to Tripoli, there’ll be no one left to save. You people don’t get it, Gaddafi is just killing people as many and as fast as he can, it’s not like life in America, it’s bang bang bang – throw them in the sea and shoot anyone that even remembers them. They dragged the wounded from the hospitals and threw them on the same trucks intermingled with the corpses to dispose of them.

    He’ll kill 95 percent of the population so long as he has 5 percent left to keep him in power.

    ” In previous cases you and the other haters/populists had a convenient and obvious scenarios, so you could more easily blame NATO/USA/EU”

    No, “Mile”, it’ nothing as cartoon-ish as that. Yes, I understand how you think, you represent a large section of the population that is incapable of critical strategic analysis.
    You are attached to an image of something and you project upon me some black and white idea of attacking or defending that image. The purpose of analysis is to investigate, and upon investigation of how something works we can change that something.
    Many of us have seen how NATO is working because we know and understand that we know what to hope for and we know what we Hope NATO will change.

    But none of us here her has the power to make NATO change, we can only watch and hope.

    However you , I know believe I am destroying them, somehow by merely conducting analysis and that is irrational. So that is really about you and not about NATO. You somehow have your identity wired to a positive image of NATO in which any disturbance of the image is a threat to yourself. . You need to free yourself from this.
    I have no personal caring about something called “NATO”, I only want a Free Libya and more Libyan lives saved.
    If you cared more about people that silly images you would dedicate yourself to being more altruistic toward the reality of people’s lives rather than cheerleading with an all or nothing, black or white approach, like your were at a team sports event.
    I invite you to read what I wrote again without reflecting it in your partisan team sport image mirror,
    I guarantee you you haven’t understood a word, you need to read again and again.Somehow you need to see beyond the images to the reality of things.
    You will find you won’t lose anything, you’ll still have NATO, you can still like them , whatever you want and you can still do critical analysis and like certain thing and dislike other things and want to change those other things.
    Images are single dimensional ,
    The human situation is not only multi-dimensional , it contains both the good and bad together.
    I hope can learn to accept more what humans are and care more about them. than images.

    • emca says:

      Unfortunately and cynically images are all. If reality is to arise, then it is for many only with the removal of perpetrators who allow no transparency.

      When a NATO hit misdirects and kills its big news and half the World claims the organization are not saving but endangering civilian lives. When criminal Qaddafi deliberately kills thousands without qualm and then goes on state TV and says the remaining rats must be destroyed, then nothing. Silence of night.

      NATO can’t win the conflict militarily. This has been said by many. It can though arm and facilitate those who can, the rebels, FF, NLA the NTC. This is within mandates of Resolutions 1970 and 1973, the establishment of basic human rights among the Libyan populace.

      While much has been promised, too little makes reality. Current pictures from the front (the rebel front of course) still show a pathetic mix of homemade heavy weaponry, reclaimed Qaddafi hardware and barefooted civilian fighters firing AKs at tanks; eager but hopelessly out gunned.

      Tripoli is not suicidal; they wait for Libyan opposition to stand at its gates. NATO is not going to script this bombing Qaddafi’s tent.

  14. ankhwashitaw says:

    You have to move troops, you have to do a couple of landings to break the stalemate. You have the Air and sea for close support. What a silly a-ss game we’re playing here. It won’t do any good. The whole point is to get the people to go back to work for a failed system. You can mistreat them, ut it’s not going to change what they already know. The heads of these countries were beaten when the people started protesting en masse. So they find syncophantic politicians to push their agenda, well, those muthabuckas are abot to start catching what they’ve given. Where will the exploiters be then….They’ll be getting their shyytttt snatched, that’s where they’ll be. It’s the exact same place they’d have been without mass murder. I deviate……Bottom line, no major uprsing in Tripoli unless they see movement coming their way to embolden them…..There have been too many false starts already………. I look at how America and the allies abandned the Phillipines with little or no fight. These are the children and grandchildren of those people commanding this operation. Any wonder at what’s going on. I geuss fruit don’t fall to far from the tree……..You have to make landings, the Eastern Libyans are ready and willing…..Take volunteers….Do not take them from the old force, but the new trainees……….I like just south of the Misirata swamps…..That way they have a reasonable retreat…………

  15. rohama says:

    now they(some of Kaddafi’s friends) are weeping & crying by losing their family members. but they(Kaddafi & his allies) never try to understand those families pains, who lost before their family members by Kaddafi regime’s brutal crackdown.
    oppositions blood & life was and is nothing to them(Kaddafi regime & his allies). I think now those dead pro-democracy fighters’ soul are laughing from heaven by seeing this scenery and their families are also happy.

  16. Richard from France says:

    It is not sure at all that the people in Tripoli will take arms against Kaddhafi. At least, I would not rely of this.
    First, it is extremely difficult in Tripoli, where any gathering is closely monitored, phones eavesdropped, etc. The situation is very different of Misrata, where Kaddhafi wanted to erase the city, leaving paradoxically more freedom to organize. In Tripoli, most people are still hoping that they will escape a fight.
    Second, seems that Kaddhaffi has more support in Tripoli, if we see the number of narks and thugs. Or at least this support is better organized.
    Third, if Tripoli had to rise, it would be already done.

    This plan of the NATO is obvious, since they bombed the guard towers of Bab al Azizya, breaching its walls. There may be not much left in Bab Al Azizya now, save the symbol of power. The reasoning of the NATO is simple: once Bab Al Azizya fallen, there is no longer a government and Kaddhaffi becomes a fugitive. NATO seems to think that this would ensure the victory. Not sure at all, as, even in the desert, as long as Kaddhafi has soldiers obeying him, he is dangerous, he can attack any town in any part of Libya and he may need years to neutralize. Remember in which rat hole Saddam Hussein was found.

    However people of Tripoli did not attacked Bab Al Azizya, and they will probably not. NATO has to seek another plan.

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